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Sri Lanka at high risk of a currency crisis, warns top Japanese bank - newsfirst.lk - Japan - Sri Lanka - Pakistan - Turkey - Hungary - Romania - Egypt - Czech Republic
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Sri Lanka at high risk of a currency crisis, warns top Japanese bank
COLOMBO (News 1st) – Sri Lanka is among the seven countries with a high risk of a currency crisis, warned Nomura Holdings, Japan’s top brokerage and investment bank.The other countries are  Egypt, Romania, Turkey, the Czech Republic, Pakistan, and Hungary.According to Reuters, the Japanese bank said that 22 of the 32 countries covered by its in-house "Damocles" warning system have seen their risk rise since its last update since May, with the largest increases in the Czech Republic and Brazil.It meant the sum of the scores generated on all 32 by the model had increased sharply to 2,234 from 1,744 since May."This is the highest total score since July 1999 and not too far from the peak of 2,692 during the height of the Asian crisis," Nomura economists said, calling it "an ominous warning sign of the growing broad-based risk in EM currencies".The model crunches 8 key indicators on a country's FX reserves, exchange rate, financial health and interest rates to give an overall score.Based on data from 61 different EM currency crises since 1996, Nomura estimates that a score above 100 indicates a 64% chance of a currency crisis in the following 12 months.Egypt, which has already devalued its currency heavily twice this year and sought an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, now generates the worst score at 165.Romania is next on 145 having been propping up its currency with interventions.
Sylvain Charlebois - Hurricanes Ian, Fiona could drive up grocery costs on these items in Canada - globalnews.ca - Usa - Canada - county Atlantic - county Halifax
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Hurricanes Ian, Fiona could drive up grocery costs on these items in Canada
Hurricanes Ian and Fiona could have grocers that source food from Atlantic Canada and the southern United States passing higher costs on to Canadian consumers, experts say, as some businesses on the east coast begin to rebuild their battered industries.Any disruption to supply chains, which have seen major improvements in shipping costs and reliability over the past six months, is thankfully expected to be brief.“The effects of things like hurricanes tend to be short-lived,” Fraser Johnson, professor of operations management at Ivey Business School, tells Global News.That could be cold comfort to Atlantic Canada’s fishing industry, which was devastated when Fiona, classified then as post-tropical storm, hit the east coast this past weekend.Entire harbours in Newfoundland’s Port aux Basques were washed off the coast as two-metre-high storm surges hit the shore and will need to be rebuilt. Others have seen fishing equipment and entire ships washed out to sea or beached on land.Fisheries Minister Joyce Murray said Thursday that it will take more time to assess the full extent of the damage to the fishing industry, but added she’s willing to work with fish harvesters across the region on requests for a season extension.Sylvain Charlebois, director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University in Halifax, experienced the damaging winds and torrential rain from Fiona first hand, recalling in an interview with Global News how the storm hit in the middle of the night and left his home without power for five days.For residents in Atlantic provinces, lengthy power outages mean short shelf lives for food in fridges and freezers.
Canada’s rising prices becoming entrenched, recession may be needed: economists - globalnews.ca - Canada
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Canada’s rising prices becoming entrenched, recession may be needed: economists
inflation in Canada are likely to peak in the fourth quarter of this year, economists told Reuters, though most see signs fast rising prices are becoming entrenched and warn a recession may be needed to avoid a spiral.Canada’s inflation data for August will be released on Tuesday, with analysts forecasting the headline rate will edge down to 7.3 per cent, from 7.6 per cent in July and a four-decade high of 8.1 per cent in June.But all eyes will be on the three core measures of inflation – CPI Common, CPI Median and CPI Trim – which taken together are seen as a better indicator of underlying price pressures.The average of the three hit a record high of 5.3 per cent in July. Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 5.4% in August as interest rate hikes ‘bite’ Six of eight economists surveyed by Reuters see core inflation peaking in the fourth quarter as underlying domestic and global pressures start to ease, though the path back to the two per cent target will not be brisk.“Rapidly cooling growth, the pullback in housing prices, and less pressure on supply chains will help cap core inflation relatively soon,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.“However, we believe that it will be sticky, and will descend only slowly through 2023,” he added.The broadening of price increases, increased wage settlements, as well as rising consumer and business inflation expectations are signs that inflation is becoming more entrenched in the economy, economists told Reuters.
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