Time is running out for China to switch to a more sustainable strategy for containing the virus After largely keeping out Covid-19 for two years, China’s largest city is battling an outbreak numbering over 100,000 cases.
And while the Shanghai government has yet to acknowledge any Covid fatalities, spiking deaths at some elderly care facilities suggest that the numbers are there, whether officially acknowledged or not.
Is this a sign of things to come in the rest of China? Not necessarily, but if the government doesn’t move quickly to vaccinate and boost its elderly, and start spending much more heavily on hospital capacity, then the human and economic consequences could be disastrous.
Events in Hong Kong and Shanghai have demonstrated that a “zero Covid" strategy can look very effective for a long time—until suddenly it isn’t, either because a more infectious variant changes the game or because success itself breeds overconfidence.